環球金融 | 每周经济简报 1月11日

Hello & Happy Tuesday!


Weekly Market Monitor, week ending January 11th, 2019

 

United States

 

• U.S. equity markets built on last Friday’s gains, firming up for the second consecutive week. Seemingly-fruitful trade negotiations between the U.S. and China offered notable support.

• With respect to data, both the ISM non-manufacturing index and small business confidence have eased from recent highs, but remain in healthy territory. Inflation data came in as expected, with core CPI holding steady at 2.2% y/y.

• The government shut down, which is on track to become the longest in U.S. history, may test the Fed’s wait and see approach to monetary policy, given data distortions and delays. If it ends soon, we expect its impact to be quite modest. But each passing week has the potential to amplify the impact.


Canada

 

• As widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 1.75% this week. It also signaled little desire to raise rates in thenear term.

• Energy sector woes are expected to drag on Canadian economic activity to the tune of half a point through 2020. As a result, 2019 growth was downgraded by 0.4 ppts to 1.7% relative to the Bank’s October outlook.

• With the Bank of Canada communicating less urgency toraise rates in the near-term, we now expect the next rate hike to occur in July.

 

 上周经济新闻


美国

 

·       美国股市建立在上周五的涨幅之上,连续第二周走强。中美之间看似富有成效的贸易谈判提供了显着的支持。


·       就数据而言,ISM非制造业指数和小企业信心均从近期高点回落,但仍处于健康区域。通胀数据如预期一致,核心CPI同比持稳于2.2%。


·        由于数据扭曲和延迟,政府关闭有望成为美国历史上最长的政府关闭,可能会考验美联储对货币政策的观望态度。如果它很快结束,我们预计其影响将非常小。但每过一周都有可能放大影响。


 

加拿大

 ·        正如人们普遍预期的那样,加拿大央行本周的政策利率为1.75%。这也表明在短期内几乎没有提高利率的愿望。


·        预计到2020年,能源行业的困境将拖累加拿大的经济活动达到半个点。因此,相对于该行10月份的展望,2019年的增长率下调0.4个百分点至1.7%。




信息来源:TD Asset Management



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